Drug Stock Doubles After Trial Data

The William Lyon deal is weighing on TMHC

by Patrick Martin

Published on Nov 6, 2019 at 1:03 PM
Updated on Jun 24, 2020 at 10:16 AM

The U.S. stock market is holding near record highs today, as Wall Street unpacks a series of Fed speeches. Among specific stocks making notable moves are home builder Taylor Morrison Home (NYSE:TMHC), cancer specialist Constellation Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:CNST), and drugmaker Supernus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NASDAQ:SUPN). Here's a quick look at what's moving the shares of TMHC, CNST, and SUPN.

TMHC Breaches Key Trendline After William Lyon Deal

Taylor Morrison Home stock is down 6.6% at $22.13 at last check, after agreeing to buy rival William Lyon (WLH) in a cash-and-stock deal worth $2.4 billion. The deal would create the U.S.'s fifth-biggest homebuilder. This is pacing to be TMHC's fourth straight loss, and takes the stock below its 160-day moving average for the first time since early April. Year-to-date though, the shares are still up 39%, and nabbed an annual high of $28 as recently as Oct. 21.

The stock's normally barren options pits are alive today. Calls are all the rage, trading at five times the average intraday amount and six times the number of puts traded. New positions are being opened at the December 25 call, indicating some call traders are eyeing a rebound from TMHC within the coming weeks.

CNST Almost Doubles In One Day

Constellation Pharmaceuticals stock sits on top of the Nasdaq today, last seen up 99% to trade at $29.80, after the company's bone marrow cancer drug reported upbeat mid-stage trials. RBC calls the data a "substantial opportunity," and minimizes the risk of the stock. CNST closed last night at $14.77, only to hit a record high today of $45.42. From its current perch, the drug stock has nearly doubled from its July 2018 initial public offering (IPO) price of $15. 

While most analysts rate the equity a "buy" or better, there's room for more bull notes. The security's consensus 12-month price target of $18.14 is now a 38% discount to its current perch, implying there's ample room for a shift in analyst sentiment.  

Puts Pop As SUPN Sinks

On the other end of the spectrum is Supernus Pharmaceuticals stock, down 31.2% to trade at $20.05, and earlier scraping a new three-year bottom of $19.91. This comes after the company's ADHD treatment failed a trial, while third-quarter earnings and revenue fell short of analyst estimates. In response, Jefferies downgraded SUPN to "hold" from "buy," and slashed its price target to $23 from $46. Cowen also chimed in with a price-target cut to $32 from $50. The embattled drug stock has now shed 40% year-to-date, and has faced steady pressure from its descending 80-day moving average.

It's no surprise then that puts are all the rage today. Specially, more than 2,200 puts have crossed the tape so far -- a whopping 94 times the average intraday amount, and four times the number of calls traded. Leading the charge is the November 26 put, where it appears sell-to-open activity is detected. There is also potential buy-to-open activity at the November 19 put. 


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