Struggling Insurance Stock Enters Bearish Month

AIG tends to struggle in November

Managing Editor
Nov 1, 2019 at 9:47 AM
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Insurance stock American International Group Inc (NYSE:AIG) is down 0.8% today to trade at $52.69, after the company reported adjusted third-quarter earnings of 56 cents per share, lower than the $1 consensus estimate. AIG cited weaknesses in its life and retirement business as reasons for the dismal report. Losses today are held in check by a revenue beat and smaller catastrophe losses.

The stock has now taken an 11% haircut off its Sept. 19 annual high of $58.66. AIG is heading toward its sixth straight weekly loss, but today's drop is being contained by the shares' 160-day moving average. While AIG is still up 33% year-to-date, data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White shows the insurance stock is one of the worst stocks to own in November. The equity has ended the month higher just 40% of the time and has averaged a loss of roughly 2.8%.

Analysts have held firm during this recent rough patch. There are 13 brokerages covering AIG, and eight rate it a "buy" or better, with zero "sells" on the books. Plus, the consensus 12-month price target of $59.81 is a 12.9% premium to last night's closing perch of $52.96. In other words, the equity is at risk for downgrades that could pressure it lower.

That could spell trouble for the security's legion of options traders. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), calls have tripled puts during the last two weeks. The stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.22 sits higher than 92% of all other readings from the last year, indicating this rate of calls buying relative to put buying is very unusual. 


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