Cruise Stock Runs Aground After Slashing Guidance

The cruise line blamed U.S travel policy for the trimmed outlook

Managing Editor

Jun 20, 2019 at 9:48 AM

One of the worst stocks on the New York Stock Exchange today is Carnival Corp (NYSE:CCL), down 12.6% to trade at $46.21 this morning. The company's adjusted second-quarter earnings and revenue came in above analyst expectations, but the cruise line cut its 2019 profit forecast, citing the U.S. government policy change toward travel to Cuba.

This is pacing to be Carnival stock's worst day since 2012. CCL is now dangerously close to its Dec. 26 two-year low of $45.64, and has breached its year-to-date breakeven point. And since a late-March earnings-induced bear gap, the shares have faced overhead pressure from their 60-day moving average.

Analysts have yet to come forward with any brokerage notes, but the overall sentiment is evenly skewed. Of the 14 in coverage of CCL, seven either rate it a "strong buy" or tepid "hold." However, the stock's consensus 12-month price target of $62.89 is a 19% premium to last night's closing perch of $52.84, implying the door is wide open for bear notes in the future.

Short sellers have been ramping up their exposure lately. Short interest increased by 22% in the two most recent reporting periods. The 13.75 million shares sold short is the most since June 2018, but still only accounts for a slim 3.4% of CCL's total available float, indicating there is ample room aboard the bearish bandwagon.

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