Analyst: Buy This Retail Stock Before Q4

Options traders have been extremely call heavy toward TJX stock in recent weeks

Managing Editor
Sep 26, 2018 at 10:03 AM
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TJX Companies Inc (NYSE:TJX) stock is trading higher this morning, after DA Davidson began coverage on the retailer with a "buy" rating and $130 price target. The price target represents nearly 18% upside to last night's $110.32 close, and sits in uncharted territory for TJX shares. What's more, the TJ Maxx parent is on the cusp of what tends to be a bullish quarter for the stock.

Specifically, TJX stock has been among the best S&P 500 components to own in the fourth quarter, looking back 10 years. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the equity has averaged a quarterly gain of 5.49%, and has ended the three-month stretch higher 80% of the time.

TJX has been climbing the charts, rallying more than 50% in the past year. The security enjoyed a post-earnings bull gap on Aug. 21, and earlier this month touching a fresh record high of $111.91. Supporting the shares' long-term uptrend has been the rising 30-day moving average, which has contained the majority of the stock's brief pullbacks since late last year. Today, the equity is within striking distance of new-high territory, up 0.3% at $110.70.

Looking toward options, traders have been extremely bullish in recent weeks. This is per data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which shows the retailer with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 16.34, ranking in the highest annual percentile. In other words, during the past two weeks, calls have been purchased over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Echoing this is the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.39, which ranks in the 9th percentile of its annual range. This indicates that in the past year, short-term traders have rarely been more call-heavy on TJX.

Lastly, now seems to be an attractive time to hop onto TJX's short-term options. This is per the clothing concern's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 18%, which ranks in the 7th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, short-term options are cheap, from a volatility perspective.


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