Analyst Targets Almost 200% Upside for This Retail Stock

Overstock has been trending lower since January

by Karee Venema

Published on Sep 10, 2018 at 9:51 AM
Updated on Jun 24, 2020 at 10:16 AM

Maxim initiated coverage on Overstock.com Inc (NASDAQ:OSTK) with a "buy" rating and a $75 price target -- a 188% premium to last Friday's close at $26. This represents a rare vote of confidence from the brokerage bunch, considering just one other analyst covers OSTK, though they also maintain a "buy" recommendation. As a result, OSTK shares are up 5% out of the gate to trade at $27.30.

Looking at the charts, it's been a rough stretch for OSTK since it topped out at a record high of $89.80, down 70%. More recently, the shares gapped below their 200-day moving average in late March, and a mid-August rally attempt was quickly contained by this descending trendline.

Options traders, meanwhile, have been quick to initiate long calls over puts over in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), OSTK's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 5.53 ranks in the 84th annual percentile.

Given Overstock's long-term slide, it's likely some of this accelerated call buying is due to shorts hedging their bearish bets against any upside risk. Short interest surged 9.7% in the two most recent reporting periods to 9.5 million shares -- the most since 2006, and representing 47% of the stock's available float.

Whatever the reason, it's an attractive time to purchase premium on OSTK options. The equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 78% ranks in the 19th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in low volatility expectations at the moment.


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