Citron Spoils NVDA Surge; Canopy Growth Boosted By Weed Supply Deal

Citron outlined 10 reasons why NVDA will sink to $200 by April

Managing Editor
Aug 21, 2018 at 3:01 PM
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Stocks are higher today, as the Dow heads toward its fourth straight win and the S&P 500 hits record highs. Looking at individual names, chip stock Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA) and medical marijuana name Canopy Growth Corp (NYSE:CGC) are positive, while tech firm Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co (NYSE:HPE) is in negative territory. Here's a closer look at what's moving shares of NVDA, CGC, and HPE.

Citron: 10 Reasons NVDA Will Drop

Nvidia stock is up 1.4% to trade at $251.23, but was earlier trading as high as $253.50. Helping pare those gains is a note from notorious short seller Citron Research, which gave 10 reasons why the chip stock will fall 20% back down to $200 by next April. Chief among those reasons are the record low amount of short interest and a crowded field of competitors.

On the charts, NVDA raced to a record high of $269.20 in mid-June, and recent rebound attempts have stalled in the $260 area. Nevertheless, last week's post-earnings pullback was contained by the shares' 160-day moving average. Still, the security sports a 58% gain year-over-year. 

Those looking to bet on the chip stock may want to consider options. Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for the security is currently at 28%, which registers in the 5th percentile of its annual range -- indicating short-term options are attractively priced at the moment, from a historical volatility perspective.

Ontario Supply Deal Helps Stoke CGC Flames

Canopy Growth stock is up 2.6% to trade at $38.52, and earlier nabbed a fresh record high of $40.26, after Canadian province Ontario inked supply deals with the company, along with several other cannabis producers. Recreational marijuana will become legal in Canada on Oct. 17.

CGC has gained a whopping 56% in just the past week, thanks to a $4 billion investment from Constellation Brands (STZ). Amid the hype surrounding weed stocks, options have been flying off the shelves lately. On the International Securities Exchange (CBOE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), speculators have bought to open nearly four CGC calls for every put in the past two weeks. Today, Canopy Growth options are flying off the shelves at three times the typical intraday pace, with calls doubling puts.

Some of the recent call buying -- particularly at out-of-the-money strikes -- could be attributable to short sellers seeking an options hedge on the red-hot pot stock. Short interest increased by 10.7% in the two most recent reporting periods, to a record high 18.32 million shares. This represents a healthy 10.5% of CGC's total available float, and more than six days of pent-up buying power.

Analyst Losing Faith in HPE

This morning, Bernstein downgraded Hewlett Packard Enterprises to "market perform" from "outperform," while trimming its price target to $18 from $20. The analyst in coverage believes HPE is losing market share in servers, and as a result may not be able to sustain its revenue growth. Yesterday the security was turned away near the $17 level, an area that provided support after a bull gap in February, and today HPE is down 5% at $15.89.

Looking in the options pits, HPE has a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.61, which ranks in the highest percentile of its annual range. In other words, near-term options traders have not been more put-skewed in the past year.


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