2 Top Picks Making Big End-of-Year Progress

A lot can change in just a few months for stocks

Managing Editor
Nov 10, 2023 at 2:41 PM
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Subscribers to Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, November 5.

With less than a quarter left in 2023 and Wall Street seemingly ready to bounce back from an extended fall drawdown, a quick check-in seemed warranted with our Top 2023 picks, to see how bad the damage was. Previously, we highlighted MongoDB (MDB)’s summer breakout thanks to a huge mid-year post-earnings pop, to show how much can change in just three months of trading. Today’ well focus on one pick that has managed to swing back into the black on a year-to-date basis, while another enjoying a 2023 return just shy of 20%.

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We’ll take a closer look at Macy’s (M) closer to Black Friday and its Nov. 16 earnings report, but for now, the most interesting stock performance in the last three months is Waste Management (WM), which is currently on the right side of its year-to-date breakeven level. After a sluggish late-summer performance, the shares have seen a sharp turn higher after hitting a bottom of $149.71 on Oct. 3. The security jumped on a post-earnings pop of 6.1% Oct. 25, surging to the site of its late-July bear gap, suggesting a long-term recovery of its shares are well in place.

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Brokerages are on the sidelines, with seven of the covering brokerage firms sporting a tepid "hold" rating, so there’s upgrade potential in the next few months. Options traders are in luck, too. Waste Management stock currently sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 13%, which ranks in the low 10th percentile of its annual range. In simpler terms, this means options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

Also making moves on our table in the last quarter is Dutch chipmaker ASML Holding (ASML), which is sporting a healthy 17.1% year-to-date gain – steady improvement from a mid-August 9.8% lead for 2023. As of this writing, ASML is on track for a seventh consecutive day of gains, with news of its interest in moving chip manufacturing to Vietnam, as tensions with China ramp up internationally. The shares are trading at nearly two-month highs, and have reclaimed their formerly resistant 50-day moving average.

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Less than two months of trading remain on the docket for 2023, and as have just seen, a lot can change in just a few months. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady – with broader investor sentiment suggesting this will remain the case for the remainder of the year – which in turn loosened up Wall Street tension over spiking bond yields. With one less barrier to entry, investors may be inclined to dip their toe back into the market to participate in some semblance of a Santa Claus rally. If that sounds like you, keep an eye on the two stocks above.

 

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