Why ASHR Is Worth Watching Around $28

The China-based fund recently peaked squarely at a +20% year-to-date return

Editor-in-Chief
Jul 31, 2017 at 11:19 AM
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The Deutsche X-trackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF (ASHR), which is based on an index tracking 300 major Chinese companies, isn't exactly the hottest property among options traders. Total open interest on the fund totals fewer than 98,000 contracts as of this writing, which -- per Trade-Alert -- registers in the low 4th percentile of its annual range. But while speculators may have lost interest in ASHR of late, technicians will want to take note of a critical chart level that's once again in play for the China-based fund.

Specifically, after closing the prior Friday, July 21, at $27.94 -- and opening last Monday at $28.09 -- ASHR ended the week squarely at $28.03. And lest you think ASHR's ongoing close calls with the $28 area are purely coincidental, consider the following share-price highlights from the past several years (along with the accompanying three-year price chart):

  • $28.78 - Nov. 21, 2014 bull gap high
  • $28.32 - Nov. 14, 2014 intraday high
  • $28.14 - July 24, 2017 year-to-date intraday high
  • $28.14 - +20% year-to-date return for 2017
  • $28.00 - July 19, 2017 close
  • $27.98 - Dec. 31, 2015 year-end close
  • $27.60 - 50% of the June 12, 2015 all-time intraday high

Given the dual significance of the $28.14 level, as laid out above, we'd be very interested to see another intraday test of this price point in the immediate days ahead, following last Monday's initial incursion. Back in early June, it took a matter of only five trading days for ASHR to first test its +10% year-to-date return (at $25.79) and then, after an initial retreat, close decisively above it.

Further, we'd note that ASHR's Relative Momentum Index (RMI) is in the process of rolling lower from a move up to 89.90 -- this metric's highest point since the second quarter of 2015. Back in August 2014 -- a year where the price action in ASHR has echoed the current calendar year pretty closely -- the RMI rolled lower after peaking just shy of 90 on multiple occasions through the first half of the month. And while ASHR chopped around the charts through late October as its RMI fell back toward the midpoint of 50, the shares then went on to rally 40% during the two-month stretch into year-end 2014.

ashr daily price chart rmi 0728


Subscribers to Bernie Schaeffer's Chart of the Week received this commentary on Sunday, July 30.


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