Short-term risks, long-term setups, and trade ideas for navigating market seasonality
Senior Market Analyst, Matthew Timpane CMT, recently went live on Timing Research's Analyze Your Trade show. While answering real-time questions and pulling charts to analyze, he unpacked S&P 500 levels, short-term market volatility, seasonal trends, and how options-related open interest levels can act as support/resistance.
Below is the video, plus bullet points of the first five stocks he was given to analyze.
✅ Key Takeaways
📉 General Market Outlook
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June options expiration (OPEX) tends to be volatile, with seasonal weakness before strong July performance.
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Buyback blackouts and low summer liquidity contribute to choppy action.
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Key S&P 500 support at 5,950 – a break below could open the door to deeper pullbacks (200-day MA at 5800, 50-day near 5700).
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Geopolitical risks could add near-term volatility but are unlikely to trigger a full retest of lows barring major escalation.
📊 Individual Stocks & Trade Setups
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Datadog Inc (NASDAQ:DDOG)
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Holding above year-to-date anchored volume weighted average price (VWAP) and 200-day moving average.
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Watching for move toward $137 and possibly $145, if momentum persists.
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Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY)
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Cleared $45 resistance.
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$50 is peak call open interest (OI) – expect either resistance or a breakout toward $53–$56.
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Good momentum, but headlines can spike volatility.
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CrowdStrike Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:CRWD)
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Looks strong on daily and weekly charts.
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Watch for breakout over recent highs or pullback support near $455.
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Options setup shows 505–520-strike call OI, 450 put stack.
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Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B (NYSE:BRK.B)
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At its 200-day moving average; potential defensive play.
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$485 breakout = long trigger; upside target around $500, stop below 200-day MA.
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CoreWeave Inc (NASDAQ:CRWV)
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Strong post-IPO momentum; supported by Nvidia (NVDA).
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Holding above IPO level (~62) and riding the 10-day moving average.
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Key support around $165–$166, secondary buy zone at $143–$144.