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Target Stock Stages 4-Week Slide Before Earnings

The retailer has yet to recover from its November post-earnings plummet

Deputy Editor
Mar 3, 2025 at 12:04 PM
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Retail giant Target Corp (NYSE:TGT) will report fourth-quarter results before the open Tuesday, March 4. Wall Street anticipates earnings of $2.24 per share on revenue of $30.83 billion, lower than expectations and results from the same quarter last year, though comparable store sales are expected to rise.

In recent notes ahead of the event, several analysts said the company will likely follow peers Walmart (WMT) and Home Depot (HD) in conservative current-quarter and full-year projections. 

At last glance, Target stock was up 0.2% at $124.44. The equity has yet to recover from its Nov. 20 post-earnings bear gap of 21.4%, with its late-January rally facing rejection at the 140-day moving average. Now, shares are fresh off a fourth consecutive weekly loss, down 20% year-over-year and 8.1% year-to-date. 

TGT March3

Looking back, TGT has a fairly optimistic earnings history, however. The stock's November plummet was just one of two post-earnings losses over the past two years, the other occurring in May 2024. The security averaged a 9.6% move in the last eight quarterly reports, regardless of direction, and the options pits are pricing in an 11.8% swing this time around. 

In the options pits, put traders targeted Target stock during its latest pullback. The equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.34 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits higher than 94% of readings from the past year. In the event of a positive post-earnings move, an unwinding of this pessimism could provide tailwinds. 

 

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