WBA ran into a trendline with historically bearish implications
Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc (NASDAQ:WBA) stock has been in a world of hurt ever since losing its spot on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) this year. The equity has been trying to distance itself from its Nov. 21, record low of $8.08, but carries a hefty 62.2% year-to-date deficit. Plus, the stock's latest rally following reports the pharmacy company may get taken private sent WBA right into a trendline with historically bearish implications.
According to a study from Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, WBA just ran into its 126-day moving average, which White defines as the equity trading below the moving average for 80% of the time over the past two months, and closing south of the trendline in eight of the last 10 sessions, before getting within striking distance of the moving average.
Similar runups have occurred six times in the past three years. The stock was lower one month after those instances 83% of the time, averaging a 6.3% loss for that period. A comparable move from WBA's current perch of $9.81 would put it back near record lows.
An unwinding of optimism in the options could add to Walgreens Boots Alliance stock's woes. This is per its 50-day call/put volume ratio of 3.32 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio ranks higher than 97% of annual readings, indicating long calls are more popular than usual.
It's also worth noting that WBA has consistently outperformed volatility expectations over the past year, as reflected in its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) score of 95 out of 100.