eBay stock tends to underperform in the fourth quarter
E-commerce stock eBay Inc (NASDAQ:EBAY) is 0.5% higher at $65.39 at last glance, and earlier scored a fresh three-year high of $65.57. EBAY's gains accelerated after the company's fourth-quarter earnings report in February. The security now boasts a 50% year-to-date lead after yesterday clocking third-straight quarterly and monthly wins.
Despite this impressive technical setup, it may be best to take a wait-and-see approach to the e-tail stock, as it tends to underperform in the fourth quarter despite the holiday shopping season. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White's list of the 25 worst performing S&P 500 Index (SPX) equities in the last 10 years, eBay is one of the worst names to own.
Digging deeper, EBAY finished eight of the last 10 fourth quarters lower, averaging a 1.9% loss. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put the equity around $64.
An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could also weigh on the equity. This is per EBAY's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.52 that sits higher than just 1% of readings from the past 12 months, which implies short-term options traders are operating with a call-bias at the moment.
Options look to be an attractive route to go when weighing in on the stock. EBAY'S Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24% ranks in the low 11th percentile of the last 12 months. What's more, the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at a low 10 out of 100, making it a prime selling candidate.