Don't Count Airbnb Stock Out Yet

The stock could benefit from a round of upgrades

Deputy Editor
May 14, 2024 at 12:58 PM
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Airbnb Inc (NASDAQ:ABNB) stock is down 1.1% to trade at $147.53 at last check, as the shares continue to struggle following a negative post-earnings reaction earlier this month. In fact, over the last week of trading, the equity has shed 7.5%. The $146 level is keeping the stock in check, however, and this latest pullback could have bullish implications.

According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Airbnb stock is within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average, which was a bullish trendline in the past. The equity saw at least five similar signals over the last three years, defined for this study as having traded north of the moving average 80% of the time in the past two months and in eight of the last 10 trading days.

The shares finished higher one month later in 80% of those instances, with an average 5.5% gain. A move of similar magnitude from ABNB's current perch would put it at $155.75 within the next 21 days, clearing the post-earnings bear gap on the charts.

ABNB Chart May 142024

Despite a 39.9% year-over-year lead and a slimmer 8.7% year-to-date gain, the majority of analysts are bearish on Airbnb stock. Of the 36 in coverage, 25 brokerages rate the equity a "hold" or worse, and an unwinding of this pessimism could provide some much needed tailwinds.

Now looks like the right time to speculate with options, as the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% sits in the low 2nd percentile of readings from the past year. This indicates options traders are now pricing in lower-than-usual volatility expectations.

 

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