Merck Stock's Rally Could Extend to Record Highs

MRK has been climbing since late November

Deputy Editor
Jan 8, 2024 at 2:55 PM
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The shares of Merck & Co Inc (NYSE:MRK) are already 7.3% higher since the start of the year, and earlier hit a six-month high of $117.89 before turning lower. The pharma stock has been on an uptrend since bouncing off familiar support at the $100 level in late November, and just inched into positive territory year over year. 

The stock's rally could have legs, too, as its recent highs come amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination in the past. Per Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there were five other signals over the past five years when MRK was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) stood in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower.

MRK Jan8

This is the case with the stock's current SVI of 17%, which stands in the low 3rd percentile of annual readings. The shares were higher one month later 80% of the time after each of these signals, averaging an 3.1% rise. From its current perch at $116.58, a move of similar magnitude would place the stock above $120, which would represent new record highs. 


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