Wait Before Buying Moderna Stock, Says Bear Signal

Moderna recently inked a big deal in China

Deputy Editor
Jul 6, 2023 at 2:34 PM
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Shares of pharmaceutical concern Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA) are 4.3% lower today at $118.25, one day after the company inked a deal to research, develop, and manufacture mRNA medicines in China. The equity is down 34.2% in 2023, and trading at its lowest level since late 2022. Even worse, MRNA just came within striking distance of a historically bearish trendline that could add even more headwinds.

Specifically, Moderna just came within one standard deviation of its 60-day moving average after a lengthy stretch above the trendline. According to White's data, five similar signals occurred over the past three years. MRNA was lower one month later after all but two signals, averaging a one-month loss of 4.2%. A similar move from the security's current perch would put Moderna stock at around $113, or levels not seen since early 2021.

MRNA Chart July 52023

An unwinding of optimism in the options pits could weigh on MRNA. This is per the security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.70 that stands higher than just 1% of annual readings, implying short-term options traders have been more call-biased than usual. 

Now could be an ideal time to weigh in with options, too, as premium is affordable. This is according to Moderna stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) reading of 39% that stands in the low 4th percentile of its 12-month range -- an indicator that options traders are pricing in lower-than-usual volatility expectations at the moment. 

 

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