Oil & Gas Stock Is Ready to Heat Up

COP has been outperforming the XLE in 2022

Deputy Editor
Dec 6, 2022 at 11:53 AM
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Oil and gas stock ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) is pulling back this afternoon, and was last seen down 2.6% to trade at $116.31. The silver lining to this breather though, is that a study from Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Rocky White shows the shares have pulled back to a historically bullish trendline. 

Per White's data, COP is within one standard deviation from its 80-day moving average, after trading above this trendline for the last few months. Over the last three years, ConocoPhillips stock experienced six similar signals and was higher one month later three times, averaging a 6.7% return. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put COP at $124.10, not far off its Nov. 4, all-time high of $138.49. COP Chart December 062022

From a technical standpoint, ConocoPhillips stock is already outperforming the sector. The equity boasts a 60.9% year-over-year lead, while the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is up 54.8% in the same timeframe. 

An unwinding of pessimism in the options pits could also provide tailwinds. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), COP sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.96, which sits in the 98th percentile of its 12-month range. Echoing this, ConocoPhillips stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio of 1.04 stands in the 89th percentile of annual readings. Both of these figure point towards a put-biased amongst options traders. 

It's also worth noting the equity's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) sits at 83 out of 100, suggesting COP has exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year.


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