AXP has bounced off this bullish trendline seven times in the last three years
American Express Company (NYSE:AXP) is down 2.3% to trade at $177.83 at last check. The blue-chip name has faced some volatility since its Feb. 16, record high of $199.55, with at least three rallies since then falling short of the $195 level, despite a valiant bounce off the $156 region. AXP is up 15.3% year-over-year, however, and there's reason to believe it may move higher still after a pullback to a historically bullish trendline.
Specifically, American Express stock recently came within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, comparable moves occured seven times in the last three years, with AXP seeing a positive one-month return 83% of the time, and averaging a 7.9% jump. A similar move from its current perch would put the equity back above the $191 mark.
A shift in sentiment amongst the brokerage bunch could create additional tailwinds for American Express stock. Of the 17 firms in coverage, 10 call the equity a tepid "hold."
The security would also benefit from an unwinding of pessimism in the options pits. This is per AXP's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.13, which stands higher than 91% of readings from the past year, suggesting short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased.