Middling Macy's Stock Could Be a Good Pick for Options Bears

Macy's has been trading sideways for most of 2022

Deputy Editor
Apr 12, 2022 at 12:37 PM
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Since their November selloff, the shares of Macy's Inc (NYSE:M) have failed to make much noise on the charts. The equity has been consolidating below the $28 level for all of 2022, with the $23 mark lingering as a floor for pullbacks. In fact, M is attempting yet another bounce off this level, though it ran right into a historically bearish trendline that could keep the equity from staging a breakout of this holding pattern any time soon. 

According to a study from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Macy's stock just came within 2% of its 80-day moving average.  This study shows five similar occurrences over the past three years. The stock was lower one month after each of these signals, averaging a 9.8% drop. From its current perch at $25.20, a similar drop would put M at $22.73, just below its aforementioned floor at the $23 level. 

m april 12

The stock looks ripe for bear notes, as its 12-month consensus price target of $31.77 is a 25.8% premium to current levels. Plus, four of the 17 analysts in coverage call M a "strong buy," compared to eight "hold" ratings, and five "sells."

Now might be an ideal time to speculate on the stock's next move with options. M sports a Schaeffer's Volatility index (SVI) of 58%, which stands higher than 26% of readings from the past 12 months. In other words, options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment. 


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