What to Make of Microsoft Stock's Current Valuation

MSFT is still up about 30% over the past year

Mar 29, 2022 at 11:01 AM
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On March 14, Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) announced that its board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.62 per share, offering a dividend yield of 0.82% and a forward dividend of $2.48. MSFT's dividend will be paid on June 9 to shareholders of record on May 18.

Just days prior to this announcement on March 8, MSFT hit a roughly eight-month low of $270, though it quickly found footing at the 320-day moving average. The security staged a impressive rebound off the trendline, toppling several former rejection levels in the meantime, including its 30-day moving average. MSFT now sports a 32.1% year-over-year lead, though its yet to reclaim its year-to-date breakeven, down 7.6%. In addition, Microsoft stock trades at an elevated valuation with a forward price-earnings ratio of 27.62 and a price-sales ratio of 12.27.

msft march 29

Options traders have taken an unusually bearish stance on MSFT. The equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.75 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) stands higher than all but 1% of annual readings. This implies that while calls have outpaced puts on an overall basis over the last 10 weeks, there's been a much healthier appetite for long puts recently.

Regardless of what stance traders take on MSFT, its options can be had at a bargain right now. This is because options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations for the security, as seen by its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 24%, which stands higher than 27% of readings from the past year. The stock has tended to outperform said volatility expectations, too, per its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 87 out of a possible 100.

Drilling down, Microsoft stock offers strong fundamentals with an incredibly consistent growth rate and a fairly stable balance sheet. MSFT currently holds $125.35 billion in cash and $80.35 billion in total debt. Additionally, the tech giant has generated $184.9 billion in revenues and $71.2 billion in net income over the past 12 months, growing 10% on the top line and 16% on the bottom line since fiscal 2021. Microsoft's trailing 12-month revenues and net income are also up 68% and 330%, respectively, since fiscal 2018. Moreover, MSFT is estimated to grow their revenues 14% and their earnings 15.1% over the next year.

At its current valuation, however, Microsoft stock investors will likely see limited gains or a price correction in the short-term but should also expect a nice profit in the long run.


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