Chip Stock Ready to Charge Even Higher

STM could bounce back toward its 20-year highs next month

Deputy Editor
Sep 21, 2021 at 12:21 PM
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The shares of STMicroelectronics NV (NYSE:STM) are up 1.6% at $45.46 this afternoon, and while there's no driving news for the positive price action, the rise has STM inching closer to its Sept.15, 20-year high of $40.39, and set to close back atop its 10-day moving average after a brief dip below the trendline during yesterday's broad-market selloff. Another trendline has come into play as well, and could portend an even bigger bounce for STM in the coming month. 

Specifically, the stock came within one standard deviation of its 30-day moving average after a lengthy period above the trendline. According to a study conducted by Schaffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, STM has seen five similar returns in the past three years. One month after each signal, the semiconductor stock was higher, averaging an impressive return of 12.1% in that time period. From where it currently sits, a similar move would put the stock just below its 20-year peak at $45.28. 

stm chart sept 21

Last time we covered STM it was running into another historically bullish trendline, before toppling then pressure at the $37 level. We also mentioned the bullish sentiment among options traders surrounding the stock following its April earnings report. Since then, the options pits have turned a bit more bearish, which could put some wind at the stock's back, should some of this pessimism begin to unwind. In fact, at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity sports a 10-day put/call volume ratio that stands higher than 94% of readings from the past year. 

Echoing this, the stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.81 stands higher than 86% of readings from the past 12 months. This implies short-term options traders have rarely been more put-biased. 

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