AMZN Weighed Down by Post-Earnings Past

The equity has a history of lackluster post-earnings moves

Deputy Editor
Jul 29, 2021 at 1:59 PM
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Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) is set to report second-quarter earnings and revenue after the close this evening, and the stock is looking to avoid its fourth straight post-earnings slide. In fact, looking over the last eight quarters, Amazon stock has moved higher just twice after reporting earnings, with next-day drops of 7.6% and 5.4% suffered in May and October 2020, respectively.  

Meanwhile, the options market is expecting a relatively contained post-earnings move, pricing in an 4.3% swing for tomorrow's session. That's compared to an average post-earnings move of just 3.6% over the past two years, regardless of direction. Zeroing in on short-term speculators,  AMZN's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.92 ranks in the elevated 90th annual percentile. This indicates short-term options traders are extremely put-biased.

However, upbeat reports from other FAANG names seem to have long-term players keeping their eyes on the prize. The security's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 1.81 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) now stands higher than 99% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating a healthy appetite for long calls of late.

Amazon.com stock was last seen trading down 0.6% at $3,607.60, and around 11% above its year-to-date breakeven level. A recent pullback from the stock's July 13, all-time high of $3,773.08 was captured by the 30-day moving average. A positive post-earnings move similar to the one the options market is predicting would put AMZN nearly in line with that peak, while a negative move will be saved by the $3,455 area.

AMZN Chart July 29

 

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