History Says Freight Stock Could Be Poised for More Records

A shift in analyst sentiment could create additional tailwinds

Digital Content Manager
Mar 25, 2021 at 12:45 PM
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The shares of logistics and freight concern Expeditors International of Washington Inc (NASDAQ:EXPD) are up 0.2% at $102.47 at last check. The security recently hit a March 18, all-time-high of $104.63, and is enjoying a 59.1% year-over-year lead, with support from the 20-day moving average. Better yet, more record highs could be in EXPD's horizon, per a historically bullish signal now flashing on the charts.

Specifically, the stock's latest peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for the security in the past. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been three other times in the past five years when the security was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) stood in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower. This is currently the case with EXPD's SVI of 21%, which stands at the very bottom of its 12-month range.

White's data shows that a month after these signals, the security was higher, averaging a 3.1% return for that time period. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put EXPD just over the $105 mark, which would constitute a fresh all-time high.

EXPD 20 Day

Analysts are still bearish towards the security, leaving plenty of room for upgrades and/or price-target hikes moving forward, which could push shares even higher. Of the seven in question, six carry a tepid "hold" rating, while one says "strong sell." What's more, the 12-month consensus target price of $92.92 is 9.4% discount to EXPD's current perch.

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