The biopharmaceutical stock's recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility
The shares of Amicus Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOLD) are up 1.3% at $22.69 at last check, after hitting a Nov. 18, all-time-high of $23.19. And while the security is now cooling off from that record, it still sports a 131.3% year-to-date lead, with support from the 20-day moving average over the last couple of months. And now, a historic bullish signal flashing on the charts could indicate even more upside for FOLD in the coming weeks.
Specifically, the stock's recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for the equity in the past. According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have only been two different times in the past five years when FOLD was trading within 2% of its 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower -- as is the case with the security's current SVI of 62.4%, which sits just above the 8th percentile of its 12-month range.
Data shows that, without fail, Amicus Therapeutics stock was higher a month later, averaging a whopping 30.1% return for that time period. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put FOLD just above the $29 mark, at yet another record peak.
Shorts are are already hitting the exits, though there is still plenty of pessimism to be unwound, which could push the security even higher. Short interest is down 2.1% in the last two reporting periods, but the 29.20 million shares sold short still account for a hefty 11.5% of the stock's available float, or more than three weeks' worth of pent-up buying power.
The options pits already lean more bullish, with calls popular. This is per the equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 16.98 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits higher than 74% of readings from the past year. In simpler terms, calls are being picked up at a quicker-than-usual clip.