Bull Signal Suggests Chipotle Stock Has Room to Run

CMG is up over 46% year-over-year

Digital Content Manager
Aug 14, 2020 at 2:44 PM
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The shares of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE: CMGare down 0.7% to trade at $1,186.05 this afternoon, after hitting an all-time high of $1,203.31 earlier today. While  the popular food chain already sports a 46.1% year-over-year lead, with support from the 30-day moving average, more upside may be on the horizon, too. This recent peak comes amid historically low implied volatility (IV), which has been a bullish combination for CMG in the past. 

According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there have been three other times in the past five years when the stock was trading within 2% of a 52-week high, while its Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) sat in the 20th percentile of its annual range or lower -- as is the case with CMG's current SVI of 30.4%, which sits just above the 11th percentile of its 12-month range. The data shows that one month after these signals, the security was higher, averaging a one-month return of 7.4%. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would put CMG above the $1,273 mark, at yet another record high.


Analysts are hesitant toward Chipotle stock, with 15 of the 26 in coverage carrying a tepid "hold" rating, while the remaining 11 call it a "strong buy." Meanwhile, the 12-month consensus target price of $1,216.59 is a slim 2.6% premium to current levels.

That pessimistic sentiment is echoed in CMG's options pits, where puts are clearly preferred. The stock sports a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.43 at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), which sits in the 94th percentile of its annual range. This suggests a healthier-than-usual appetite for bearish bets of late.

What's more, CMG's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 2.17 stands higher than 84% of readings from the past year, implying short-term options traders have been more put-biased than usual. Should some of this pessimism begin to unwind, it could propel the restaurant stock even higher. 


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