United Airlines Stock Sees Turbulence Ahead of Q2 Report

UAL is down 60% year-to-date

Assistant Editor
Jul 16, 2020 at 1:20 PM
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The shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:UAL) are down 3.4% to trade at $35.12 at last check, ahead of the company's fiscal second-quarter report, which is due out after the close on Tuesday, July 21. Below, we will take a look at the equity's latest performance on the charts, and explore some of the options activity surrounding UAL ahead of the event. 

The equity has had a rough go of it on the charts in the past few months, dipping to $17.80, its lowest level in around eight years, during the broader market's mid-March pullback. Though the equity recovered to record three-month peak of $48.95 on June 5, it's still down 60% year-to-date. However, it's worth noting that UAL closed above the descending 100-day moving average yesterday, and is set to do the same today unless some serious negative action drives the stock any lower.

UAL Chart July 16

All of this, in conjunction with the ongoing impact the coronavirus pandemic has had on the travel sector, has left analysts skeptical on United Airlines stock. Of the 12 in coverage, eight sport a tepid "hold." Conversely, the remaining four call it a "strong buy." Plus, UAL's consensus 12-month target price of $41.27 is a 17.5% premium to current levels, which could signal some price-target cuts in the near future.

A look at the United Airline stock's history of post-earnings reactions during the past two years shows a very positive response, with just two negative occurrences; however, it's interesting to note that both of these negative instances took place after its two most recent reports. UAL averaged a post-earnings swing of 5.2% the last eight quarters, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a slightly higher move of 9.3%. 

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