Target Stock Could See a Bounce Before Earnings

Despite recent positive price action, most analysts are still on the fence about Target

Deputy Editor
Jul 23, 2019 at 11:38 AM
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The shares of Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) have come a long way since last April's huge bear gap and subsequent three-month bottom just atop $70 -- up roughly 25% off their low to trade at $87.21. And while the stock has found its footing atop support at the 30-day moving average, the $89-$90 region has put a stiff lid on any further rallies. However, the equity did just pull back to a historically bullish signal that could help TGT break north of this recent resistance. 

Specifically, TGT just came within one standard deviation of its 40-day moving average after a lengthy period atop the trendline. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, this signal has flashed seven times before with 86% of one-month returns positive. What's more. the stock has averaged a one-month gain of 3.8%. From its current perch, a similar move would put TGT just atop the $90 region -- home to last year's all-time highs. Making this more notable, this signal comes almost exactly one month before the retailer's earnings report, right now scheduled for Aug. 21.

TGT Chart July 23

A round of analyst upgrades could put the wind at Target's back, too. Currently, 11 analysts consider the security a "hold," compared to only eight who call it a "strong buy." what's more, the stock's consensus 12-month target price of $88.83 is right in line with current levels.

Considering this, now might be the perfect time to speculate on Target's next move higher with options. Currently, the stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 19% stands higher than just 7% of all other readings from the past year. This suggests that options traders are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations.

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