Signal Says Buy The Dip on this Blue Chip

The stock hit an 18-year high just last week

by Lillian Currens

Published on Jun 17, 2019 at 12:06 PM

The shares of blue chip Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) pulled back after clocking an 18-year high of $57.56 just last week. The pullback was in part sparked by William Blair's bear note, and the stock is starting this week off strong, trading up 1.2% at $55.43. Plus, the equity sounded a bullish signal that could propel it even further up the charts, if history is any indicator. 

Specifically, CSCO is within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average after a long period above this trendline. This signal has sounded six other times in the past three years, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Cisco stock was higher one month later 83% of the time, averaging a 5.7% return. From its current perch, a similar move would mean fresh highs on the charts, placing the shares right below the $59 area. 

CSCO Chart June 17

Despite this recent bear note from William Blair, most analysts have remained optimistic toward the stock, with 12 calling it a "strong buy," two saying "buy," and only five doling out a tepid "hold." And while it stands at a slim 6.2% premium to current levels, the stock's consensus 12-month target price of $58.75 represents territory CSCO hasn't seen since October 2000.

Options traders have been a bit more bearish, however, with CSCO's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.73 on the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sitting in the 80th percentile of its annual range. Should CSCO continue its journey back up the charts, some unwinding pessimism here could put even more wind at the security's back. 

Now might be a good time use options to buy the dip on Cisco, too. The Dow stock's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 22% stands higher than only 22% of all other readings from the past year. This means near-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

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