Short-Term Call Traders Jump Onto Guess? Stock Before Earnings

Near-term GES options traders have rarely been more call-biased

by Emma Duncan

Published on Mar 19, 2019 at 3:36 PM

Retail giant Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) is down 1.5% at $22.50 at last check, moving lower as investors gear up for the company's fourth-quarter report, which is slated for after the close tomorrow, March 20. Below we will dive into the options market's outlook on the stock's post-earnings move, and take a look at how the retailer has been faring on the charts.

Long-term, GES has enjoyed the help of its 360-day moving average, a trendline supportive of the shares since their 2017 late-August bull gap. The moving average contained Guess stock's late-December and January pullbacks, and recently pushed the shares back above $22, and to a 53% year-over-year lead.

Daily GES with 360MA

Diving into GES' earnings history, the clothing retailer has traded higher the day after its quarterly report in five of the past eight quarters, including the last two in a row. Over the past two years, the shares have swung an average of 14.2% the day after earnings, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a smaller-than-usual 13.9% move for Thursday's trading.

Digging deeper, the stock's 30-day at-the-money (ATM) implied volatility (IV) was last seen at a lofty 59.5% earlier, ranking in the 87th percentile of its annual range. This indicates short-term GES options are pricing in extremely elevated volatility expectations at the moment.

Lastly, Guess? stock's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) comes in at 0.50, ranking in the low 3rd annual percentile. In other words, near-term options traders have rarely been more call-biased in the past year. 

 

a schaeffer's exclusive

5 NEW STOCK PICKS

We're celebrating 38 years with this FREE insider report!


 
 

Partnercenter


NEW! Explore Schaeffer’s Partners' deals and get connected to top online brokerages with deals tailored exclusively for our readers.  Get answers to your questions regarding transfer fees, commission rates, programs and available discounts related to online trading services.

MORE | MARKETstories


What's Next for the American Wealth Gap
Porter Stansberry is predicting a major change in the American economic system.
S&P 500's Newest Member Hits Fresh Highs
CDW will be replacing Total System Services on the S&P 500 next week
VTVT Stock Eyes Fresh High on Upbeat Diabetes Drug Data
vTv Therapeutics just presented upbeat data for its mid-stage diabetes treatment
What's Next for the American Wealth Gap
Porter Stansberry is predicting a major change in the American economic system.