Big Gains on the Horizon for This Pharma Stock, History Says

HZNP could be on the verge of its next rally

by Andrea Kramer

Published on Jan 4, 2019 at 1:31 PM

The shares of Horizon Pharma PLC (NASDAQ:HZNP) touched a two-year high of $23.38 in early November, before pulling back with the broader stock market. However, now could be time to jump in on the next leg higher for HZNP, if recent history is any indicator.

Specifically, the pharma stock recently came within one standard deviation of its 160-day moving average, following a lengthy stretch north of this trendline. Over the past couple of years, there have been four similar pullbacks, per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Afterwards, HZNP was higher one month later three times, with an average gain of 8.4%.

From a long-term perspective, Horizon Pharma shares have been in a channel of higher highs and lows since mid-2017, back when the stock was trading in single-digit territory. Today, the security was last seen trading up 3.5% at $20.17, after the company said it sold rights to Ravicti and Ammonaps outside of North America and Japan. Another 8.4% jump from current levels would place HZNP around $21.86.

HZNP stock chart jan 4

Should the pharma shares resume their long-term rally, a short squeeze could add fuel to the fire. Although short interest fell 28.1% in the past two reporting periods, these bearish bets still represent nearly a week's worth of pent-up buying demand, at HZNP's average pace of trading.

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