2 Defense Stocks That Could Outperform In November

November has historically been very bullish for RTN and TDG

by Josh Selway

Published on Nov 2, 2018 at 10:42 AM
Updated on Jun 24, 2020 at 10:16 AM

We're regularly checking in on historical seasonality trends, offering insights on the best stocks to target in each month. For November, bullish traders may want to consider defense stocks Raytheon Company (NYSE:RTN) and TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:TDG), since data shows that shares of RTN and TDG both tend to succeed during the month.

For example, numbers from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White give Raytheon stock a 90% win rate in November over the past 10 years, and the shares have gained 4.5% on average. This month is already setting up well for the security, since it's bouncing back from a late-October 52-week low touched during the broad-market selloff, with RTN bottoming at $165 on Oct. 30. The stock actually reversed course that same day and closed higher, and it's up another 1.8% today at $184, putting it on pace for a fourth straight win.

Analysts have stuck behind the equity during the recent rocky stretch. There are 12 brokerage firms in coverage, and 10 of them have "buy" or "strong buy" ratings. Moreover, the average 12-month price target stands up at $227.50, a roughly 23.5% premium to current levels.

Options traders appear upbeat, too, going by the Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.67, which ranks in the 30th annual percentile. Said differently, near-term options traders are more call-skewed than normal.

Turning right to TDG stock, it also boasts a 90% November win rate going back 10 years, and its average gain for the month is an even more impressive 5.1%. The shares of the aircraft components specialist are pacing for their own four-day win streak, up 1.9% today at $352.49. They've added over 28% in 2018, and their recent pullback was perfectly contained by the 320-day moving average.

Analysts are also bullish on TransDigm, going by the seven "strong buy" endorsements, compared to just three "holds" or worse. But short interest represents a notable 5.39 days' worth of buying power, if you go by average daily trading volumes. As such, the equity could actually benefit from a round of short covering.


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