Bulls Should Target This Dow Stock Right Now

MCD has been positive every November in the last 10 years

Oct 29, 2018 at 3:26 PM
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The U.S. equities market is set to end October at a substantial loss, with the Dow down 7.7% month-to-date, and the S&P 500 off 9.2%, at last check. History suggests a turnaround could be coming, considering November marks the start of the most bullish six-month period for stocks. Among specific names bulls may want to watch next month is McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), which is the only Dow component on our list of the best stocks to own on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) next month.

According to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, MCD has averaged a November gain of 2.8% over the past 10 years, with each return positive. At last check, MCD stock was up 0.5% at $174.23, extending last week's impressive gain. Specifically, the shares tacked on 3.5% as a positive earnings reaction offset stiff broad-market headwinds, and came within striking distance of their Jan. 29 record high of $178.70. What's more, a late-week pullback indicated previous resistance in the $170-$171 region could now be working as support.

mcdonalds stock daily price chart on oct 29

In the options pits, a number of speculators last week bet on the stock to stall out near current levels -- or more likely targeted elevated pre-earnings implied volatility (IV). MCD's November 177.50 call is home to peak open interest of 8,512 contracts, and data suggests a number of positions were sold to open last Monday, Oct. 22, when the stock's at-the-money (ATM) IV term structure for front-month options was docked at 22.11%. Today, Trade-Alert pegs the ATM IV term structure for November options at 21.16%.

Elsewhere on Wall Street, sentiment is relatively upbeat toward the Dow stock. While 14 of 21 analysts maintain a "buy" or better rating, the average 12-month price target of $191.15 is a nearly 10% premium to current trading levels. Plus, the 7.44 million MCD shares sold short represents just 1% of the equity's float.


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