Wynn Stock's June Drop Could Be Just Beginning

WYNN is trading lower today on disappointing Macau revenue data

Jun 1, 2018 at 11:41 AM
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Shares of Wynn Resorts, Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN) are trading down 2% at $191.91, after Macau gambling revenue came in lower than expected in May. This could mark the start in a shifting trend for WYNN stock, if history is any guide.

In fact, according to data from Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Wynn Resorts has been one of the worst stocks to own in June on the S&P 500 Index (SPX), looking back over the past 10 years. The shares have averaged a June loss of 4.67%, and has finished the month in positive territory just twice.

Longer term, WYNN stock has put in a strong performance -- up 44% year-over-year. More recently, the shares have been in a channel of higher lows since taking a sharp bounce off their 120-day moving average in early March, and are trading not far from their Jan. 25 record high of $203.63. Plus, the security's 40-day moving average is cushioning today's blow.

wynn stock chart on june 1

Against this backdrop, there's plenty of optimism priced into the casino stock. Of the 13 analysts covering the shares, eight maintain a "strong buy" rating, with not a single "sell" on the books. Plus, the security's 12-month price target of $213.50 stands at a healthy 11% premium to current trading levels.

Elsewhere, short interest declined nearly 18% in the most recent reporting period to 3.09 million shares -- matching mid-February's multi-year low. These bearish bets account for just 3.9% of WYNN's available float, and it wouldn't even take two days to cover, at the average pace of trading. Should the shares take another June swoon, a shift in sentiment could create even bigger headwinds.

Regardless of which direction options traders are betting on WYNN stock to go over the next several weeks, it's an attractive time to buy premium. The security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 28% ranks in the 19th annual percentile, meaning short-term options are pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

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