Options Market Pricing In Big Earnings Move for FIT Stock

The options market is anticipating a nearly 18% swing for Fitbit stock Tuesday

by Emma Duncan

Published on Feb 23, 2018 at 3:31 PM

Health and fitness device maker Fitbit Inc (NYSE:FIT) is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings after the close on Monday. FIT stock has had a rough go on the charts over the past couple of months, struggling since an analyst-induced bear gap in mid-December. FIT has shed 13% year-to-date, and touched a record low of $4.90 earlier this month. At last check, the stock was up 1% to trade at $5.27.

Diving into its earnings history, Fitbit stock carries about a 50% success rate, ending higher the day after earnings in four of the past eight quarters. Overall, the shares have averaged a post-earnings move of 15.2% in either direction in the session after the company reports, looking back eight quarters. For this particular quarterly report, the options market is pricing in a larger-than-usual 17.9% move for Tuesday's trading, going by implied volatility (IV) data.

However, it's worth noting that FIT sports a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of just 12 out of 100. This indicates the shares have fallen short of options' traders volatility expectations during the past year.

In the options pits, traders have been upping the bearish ante ahead of earnings, with data from International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) showing FIT with a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.84, ranking in the 95th percentile of its annual range. This indicates puts have been purchased over calls at a faster-than-usual clip over the past two weeks.

Echoing that, Fitbit stock's short interest rose 21.7% over the past two reporting periods, and now represents nearly 20% of the stock's total available float.

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