History Says Buy the Walmart Dip

Previous 10% pullbacks have marked huge buying opportunities for WMT

by Andrea Kramer

Published on Feb 21, 2018 at 10:47 AM

It was a rough session for Walmart Inc (NYSE:WMT) stock yesterday, with the shares dropping more than 10% on poorly received earnings. It was just the third decline of at least 10% for WMT stock since Black Monday in 1987, and the ninth occurrence ever, according to Schaeffer's Quantitative Analyst Chris Prybal. However, history suggests now is an opportune time buy Walmart stock, which tends to rebound with a vengeance.

The last time WMT dropped 10% in a single session was in October 2015. Prior to that, you'd have to go back to early 1988 for a decline of that magnitude. Six months after both of those drops, the shares were significantly higher, up 15% and 27.9%, respectively. In fact, looking at returns after all eight of the previous 10% drops, WMT has handily outperformed.

WMT 10% drops in 1 day

One week later, the equity was up nearly 5%, on average, and higher 75% of the time. One month out, Walmart stock was up 5.71%, on average, with a win rate of 62.5%. Those returns blow away WMT's average anytime one-week and one-month gains of 0.42% and 1.74%, respectively, considering data since 1970.

Two and three months later, WMT stock was massively higher -- erasing its 10% drop and then some -- gaining 16.07% and 18.86%, respectively! Not to mention those returns would be even higher, if not for a three-month drop of more than 30% back in 1973. Further, the blue chip was higher 75% of the time. That's compared to average anytime two- and three-month gains of just 3.51% and 5.33%, respectively, with lower win rates.

Walmart shares were also higher 75% of the time six months after previous 10% drops, gaining 14.71%, on average. For comparison, WMT sports an average anytime six-month gain of just over 11%, with a win rate of 67%.

WMT returns after 10% drops

WMT anytime returns since 1970

At last check, WMT has edged 1.3% lower to trade just south of $93. However, if past is prologue, the shares should recoup most of their recent losses soon, and another 18.86% rally over the next three months would put Walmart stock above $110 -- and back into record-high territory.

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