25 Stocks to Buy This Week

Analyzing stock market performance during short holiday weeks

Senior Quantitative Analyst
Feb 14, 2018 at 8:11 AM
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Monday is Presidents Day, which for U.S. investors means a short four-day trading week. Today, I'll look at how stocks have historically performed after this holiday, and during shortened trading weeks in general. Finally, I’ll highlight individual stocks that have performed especially well or terribly during the week of Presidents Day.

Stocks During Presidents Day Week

Presidents Day officially became the third Monday of February starting in 1971. The tables below show this holiday week has been a bad week for stocks. Since 1971, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) has averaged a loss during the week, and has been negative more times than positive.

More recent timelines paint a different picture, though. Looking at data since 1998, the percent positive almost matches other weeks. Plus, the index has been positive during Presidents Day week the last three years.

SPX Weekly Returns 1998

Best Day to Buy Stocks Next Week

The table below breaks down the returns by day. Friday tends to be most bullish, averaging a gain of 0.13%, with 57% of the returns positive. The first three days of the week have averaged a loss, while the middle two days also have a very low percentage positive.

SPX Presidents Week Returns

Short Weeks in General

Here are some stats for the S&P 500 based on the number of trading days during the week. Short weeks, in general, have been very good for stocks. The average weekly returns during short weeks of 0.34% is almost three times better than the typical 0.13% weekly return, looking at data since 1971. As you might expect, volatility is a reduced a bit during these shortened weeks.

When you look at the returns depending on whether it’s a Monday or Friday holiday (or other holiday), stocks have underperformed when the holiday is on a Monday.  

SPX Weekly Returns Days Off

Individual Stocks and Presidents Day Week

We learned above that this coming week has been a historically poor one for the S&P 500. There are, however, certain stocks that stand out during the week of Presidents Day. Looking over the past 10 years, the first table below shows stocks that have performed the best. The stocks are ranked first by percent positive and then by average return. The second table shows stocks that have performed the worst, using the same metrics.

Taking a quick glance at the tables, there seem to be a decent number of food stocks in the first table that have done well during this holiday week. On the other hand, a significant number of bank stocks make up the table of underperformers.

Best Stocks Pres Day

 

Worst Stocks Pres Day

 

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