This Retail Stock Could Swing Big After Earnings

TLRD shares have a history of huge moves in the session after reporting

Jun 7, 2017 at 12:22 PM
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Men's Wearhouse parent Tailored Brands Inc (NYSE:TLRD) will report earnings after tonight's close. TLRD stock has a history of volatile post-earnings moves, too, with the shares plunging 32.2% the day after reporting in March, and surging 39.7% in December. On average, Tailored Brands shares have swung 23.6% in the session subsequent to reporting over the last five quarters, regardless of direction. This time around, the options market is pricing in a bigger 28.4% swing, based on current implied volatility calculations.

Despite a pretty rough quarter for retail earnings -- with Duluth Holdings the latest in a long line of victims -- TLRD options traders have been buying to open calls over puts at a faster-than-usual clip in recent weeks. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the stock's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.53 ranks in the 76th annual percentile.

The near-the-money June 11 call has seen the biggest rise in open interest over this time frame, with more than 12,300 positions added. Data from the major options exchanges confirms a notable amount of these calls were bought to open. In other words, speculative traders are betting on TLRD stock breaking out above $11 by next Friday's close, when the front-month options expire.

It's certainly possible that short sellers have been using these long calls to hedge their bearish bets on any upside risk. Nearly 13 million TLRD shares are sold short, just below the eight-year peak of 14.4 million shares hit in the May 1 reporting period. At Tailored Brands stock's average daily volume, it would take about eight sessions to buy back these bearish bets.

Regardless, with earnings on the immediate horizon, elevated volatility expectations are being priced into Tailored Brands's near-term options -- making it more expensive to buy premium. While TLRD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 158% ranks in the 74th percentile of its annual range, its 30-day at-the-money implied volatility of 132.2% is at a 52-week peak.

Technically, Tailored Brands shares have been charting a path lower since they topped out at an annual high of $28.76 in late December, and bottomed at an eight-year low of $9.91 on May 24. Today, TLRD stock is trading up 3.7% at $11, but is running out of steam near its 20-day moving average.

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