Q2 STOCKS TO BUY

Indicator of the Week: The 20 Best (and Worst) Stocks to Own Until April

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has historically outperformed during the six-month period between November and April

Senior Quantitative Analyst
Oct 26, 2016 at 6:11 AM
facebook X logo linkedin


Stocks have stalled some over the past few months. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has been fairly flat since early July. The good news is that the most bullish six-month period is coming right up. This week I'll take look at the November-through-April period for stocks, and compare it to the other six months of the year (May through October). I'll also show some individual stocks that have historically been especially bullish over the upcoming six-month period.

The Upcoming Six Months: Over the past 50 years, the SPX has averaged a gain of 6.58% and has been positive 76% of the time, during the six-month period from November through April. This significantly outperforms the May through October period, which has averaged a gain of just over 1%, positive 64% of the time. The table below summarizes the returns over the past 50 years for each of these six-month periods. The average positive return of about 11% in the upcoming period stands out as especially bullish. Also notable is that, since 2009, six of the last seven November through April periods have given a positive return. The only negative result was last year, when the SPX lost less than 1% over the six months.

SPX Last 50 Years Oct 25

Here is a chart showing the average path of the returns during each six-month period. I think it really emphasizes the outperformance. The May-through-October returns basically bounce around the positive 1% level. The November-through-April period, meanwhile, shows a steady uptrend throughout the period. 

SPX May through Oct Nov through Apr Oct 25

Individual Stocks: Finally, below are a couple of tables showing individual stocks that have the biggest discrepancies between their May-through-October returns and November-through-April returns. I looked at SPX stocks over the past 10 years. The relative strength column represents the November-through-April returns relative to the May-through-October returns. 

The first table shows the 20 stocks that have performed best from November through April compared to how they performed from May through October. These are the stocks with the highest relative strength. The second table below are the worst stocks, or the stocks with the lowest relative strength. 

Best Stocks Nov Through Apr Oct 25

Worst Stocks Nov Through Apr Oct 25


Sign up now for a trial subscription of Schaeffer's Expiration Week Countdown! We'll send you 5 trades for expiration week, each targeting double- or triple-your-money gains in less than 5 days.

 
 

“Buy This Stock Now!” - Expert Who Called 11x On TSLA

He called a rare 11x on Tesla…

But now, thanks to Elon & Trump’s new alliance…

He says there’s a new opportunity that could be 1,000x BIGGER than Tesla – and it could completely revolutionize a $23 Trillion market.

It’s trading for less than $5 per share right now…

But it won’t be under the radar for long.

Discover The 1,000x Bigger Elon Opportunity Here

GRAND SLAM COUNTDOWN

 
 

Featured Articles from Trusted Partners:

👀Learn How Dividends Create Passive Income for Life
Receive $200 Off Motley Fool Epic. The Motley Fool Epic $299 discounted offer is based on $499/year list price. Introductory promotion for new members only. Take control of your money and your portfolio with Motley Fool Epic.

💵New Income System Could Pay You $4,243 Monthly
You could collect an average of $4,243 per month starting as early as next week with a new payout system for income investors. New registrations are being accepted for investors who want to be in a position to start with their first payout next week.

🚀Easy 92% Crypto Dividends (No Coins Required)
COIN stock doesn't pay a dividend... But there's actually a new way to collect a massive dividend that's indirectly based on the stock and offers a terrific monthly income (currently yielding nearly 92% on a forward basis).

🤝Free Advisor Match with Wiseradvisor.com
Don't leave your retirement to chance! Get matched with a trusted financial expert for FREE and make the most of your tax refund. Get started now.

⚠️Dennis Quaid's #1 Warning for Americans
Here's the thing: life doesn't come with guarantees. The economy shifts, markets stumble, and years of hard work could slip through your fingers like sand. But it doesn't have to be that way for you. So request a free copy of this Gold & Silver Guide that will arrive right to your doorstep when you act now.

 

 
 

Follow us on X, Follow us on Twitter