Another Bullish Signal for Gold Bugs

The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has historically outperformed on Friday the 13th

May 13, 2016 at 9:00 AM
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Today is Friday the 13th. While this date may strike fear in the superstitious -- and occurs only once this calendar year -- those on Wall Street, and gold bugs specifically, may be rejoicing. In fact, not only has the broader S&P 500 Index (SPX) historically outperformed on Friday the 13ths, going back to 1950, but the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has done particularly well.

In fact, according to data compiled by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, GLD has averaged a return of 0.3% over the past 20 Friday the 13ths, and has been positive 65% of the time. What's more, the only sector to outperform GLD on this unlucky holiday has been the iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV), which has averaged a gain of 0.8% over the last 18 Friday the 13ths, and has been positive two-thirds of the time.

Friday the 13th sector returns

Another win today would only widen GLD's year-to-date lead, with shares of the exchange-traded fund (ETF) up 19.4% in 2016 at $121.16 -- and fresh off a May 2 annual high of $123.96. Plus, according to Schaeffer's Senior VP of Research Todd Salamone, GLD's April close above one critical trendline should be encouraging for the malleable metal's near-term prospects.

Options traders, meanwhile, have been growing increasingly optimistic toward GLD. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), for instance, the ETF's 10-day call/put volume ratio of 3.08 rests higher than 88% of all comparable readings taken in the past year.

Echoing this call-skewed backdrop is GLD's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.39 -- lower than 73% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are more call-heavy than usual toward the ETF.

Now appears to be an opportune time to purchase premium on the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD), too. Specifically, GLD's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 17% ranks in the 35th annual percentile, meaning premium on the ETF's near-term options is pricing in relatively low volatility expectations at the moment.

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