20 Stocks Rooting for a Broncos Win

Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:CTRP), Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO), and Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (NASDAQ:SWHC) have historically performed well when the AFC wins the Super Bowl

Feb 4, 2016 at 2:59 PM
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The Super Bowl is nearly here, with the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers slated to take the field on Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET. While some would say Peyton Manning is still a "fabulous quarterback," the broader equities market -- and this batch of stocks -- is most likely hoping for a Carolina win. However, not all hope is lost if Denver pulls through. According to Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, there are a number of stocks that have put in strong performances in the wake of an AFC victory -- and not-so-great performances following an NFC win -- including online travel service Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:CTRP), insurance issue Assured Guaranty Ltd. (NYSE:AGO), and gun maker Smith & Wesson Holding Corp (NASDAQ:SWHC).


CTRP is boasting a year-over-year lead of over 63% at $40.65. Although the equity recently pulled back after notching a Nov. 19 record high of $57.36, it found a foothold atop its 200-day moving average.

A win by the Broncos could help the security extend its lead over this rising trendline. In fact, in the seven times the AFC has won while CTRP has been a publicly traded stock, it has averaged a rest-of-year return of 105.2%, and has been positive each time. When the NFC wins, CTRP has averaged a rest-of-year loss of 11.5%, and has been positive just two-fifths of the time.

Additionally, the outperformer could also get a boost, should short sellers start to throw in the towel. Short interest accounts for 15.1% of Ctrip.com International, Ltd.'s available float -- or nearly six sessions' worth of pent-up buying demand, at average daily trading volumes.

AGO could certainly use a Super Bowl-related surge. Since topping out at their most recent peak of $29.62 in early November, the shares have surrendered nearly one-fifth of their value to hover near $23.77. What's more, the equity's recent rally attempt off its Jan. 25 annual low of $22.28 was quickly halted by its 20-day moving average.

Over the past 11 years, the AFC has won the Super Bowl six times. In the wake of these victories, AGO has returned an average rest-of-year gain of 44.5%, and has been positive each time. When the NFC is victorious, AGO has shed, on average, 14.3% over the rest of the year, and has been positive only 20% of the time.

A Broncos win would certainly be welcome in Assured Guaranty Ltd.'s options pits. At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), the equity's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 0.20 rests in the 66th annual percentile. In other words, calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip.

Finally, SWHC has been a powerhouse on the charts over the past 52 weeks, tacking on 70% at $21.56, thanks to several big bounces off its 80-day moving average. In fact, this trendline recently served as a springboard again, after SWHC pulled back in the wake of notching an analyst-induced Jan. 5 all-time high of $26.54.

An AFC victory could certainly be a boon for the shares -- which already have history on their side this month. In the last 10 times (out of 17) the AFC has won, SWHC has been positive 90% of the time at the end of the year, averaging a gain of 380.5%. When the NFC wins, however, the security averages a rest-of-the-year loss of 14.5%, and is positive 29% of the time.

Meanwhile, the equity could find a fresh burst of buying power, should option traders start to unwind their pessimistic positions. Not only does the stock's 10-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 0.36 rank in the bearishly skewed 61st annual percentile, but its Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 0.44 sits higher than 71% of all comparable readings taken in the past year. In other words, short-term speculators are more put-skewed than usual toward Smith & Wesson Holding Corp.

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