Why Keurig Green Mountain Inc (GMCR), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) may have bears on pins and needles
About a month ago, using data supplied by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, I examined three stocks to watch in July. With August around the corner, I decided to repeat this exercise to identify some names with the potential to rally next month. Three stocks worth keeping an eye on are Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ:GMCR), NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), and Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM).
Below, you'll find a list of 32 stocks with positive returns at least 80% of the time in the last 10 years, during the month of August. Once again, this data comes courtesy of White. Under the list, you'll find additional commentary on GMCR, NVDA, and NEM.
Keurig Green Mountain Inc (NASDAQ:GMCR)
Over the past decade, GMCR has advanced eight times during the month of August, with an average gain of 6.6%. Last August, in fact, the stock soared 11.8%. A repeat performance would be quite out-of-step with the security's long-term technical trend. Since November's record high at $158.87, GMCR has lost more than half of its value to trade at $71.80.
Not surprisingly, bearish betting has been feverish across Wall Street. GMCR's 10-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) put/call volume ratio of 0.98 ranks in the 86th annual percentile. Similarly, almost 11% of the stock's float is sold short -- representing more than seven sessions' worth of activity, at typical volumes. If GMCR can regain its footing next month, an unwinding of pessimism could pave the way toward a recovery.
NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)
NVDA has been positive in nine of the past 10 Augusts, and sports an average single-month jump of 10.4% -- the second-best result on the list above. In 2014, the stock popped 11.1% in August.
Things haven't been nearly as bullish in 2015, with NVDA sitting in negative territory at $19.74. As such, 15 of 21 analysts rate the shares a "hold" or worse, while 9.7% of the stock's float is dedicated to short interest -- representing nearly seven sessions of trading, at average daily volumes. If past is prologue, though, NVDA could bounce back next month, potentially sending skeptics to the exits.
Newmont Mining Corp (NYSE:NEM).
NEM has been positive 80% of the time during the last 10 Augusts, and hasn't been negative since 2009. Last year, the security added 8.8%, before stalling out near $27.50. More recently, the stock could be found descending from the same region, which it tested in mid-to-late May. Since notching an annual high of $27.90 on May 20, NEM has dropped almost 37% to hover near $17.62 -- following the path of the broader commodities market.
Amid this downtrend, skeptics have been piling on. For instance, 11 of 13 analysts rate NEM a "hold." Also, the stock's 50-day ISE/CBOE/PHLX put/call volume ratio of 1.02 outranks all but 10% of comparable readings taking in the last year. In other words, a repeat performance could shake free a lot of bearish hands, spelling a potential outsized move north for NEM.