Shopping the (Stock) Market for the Perfect Father's Day Gift

Choosing a gift for dad, based off the stock's performance

by Josh Selway

Published on Jun 19, 2015 at 12:17 PM
Updated on Jun 19, 2015 at 2:12 PM

Father's Day is this Sunday -- you're welcome for the reminder. And since you forgot that, I'm guessing you haven't picked up a gift for your old man yet. That's alright, though, because I haven't either. So let's look at a few places dad might enjoy, and figure out where we're going to shop based on the stock's performance. Chances are, we'll just grab a gift card. 

Of course, we have to start with Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW), because what says "I love you dad!" more than a new power drill or an 80-foot ladder? However, LOW is off 0.1% today at $70.10, and has been in a sideways trend since its late-May bear gap. Plus, the shares are only 1.9% higher year-to-date. Not horrible, but dad deserves better. 

Oh, how about Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD)? We may have something here. The stock -- unlike the broader Dow -- is up 1% today at $112.92, and is now up 7.6% in 2015. However, HD's 10-week moving average -- a long-time level of support -- has been acting as resistance since mid-April, pressuring the shares lower. Plus, the equity's 50-day International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) call/put volume ratio comes in at 1.26 -- only 12 percentage points from an annual high, meaning calls have been bought to open over puts at a faster-than-usual clip. HD could see additional headwinds if these bulls change their behavior. 

Let's check over at 
Men's Wearhouse Inc (NYSE:MW). Dad would look just ​wonderful​ in one of these suits (probably black, with a navy blue tie). Even better, the stock has added 0.8% today to trade at $64.64, and is fresh off an all-time high of $64.73! I think we may have found a winner. Especially when you consider that the 14.6% of MW's float sold short represents over 18 sessions' worth of trading, at the stock's typical daily volumes. The shares could go even higher if bears throw in the towel. 

But that's assuming you make the correct choice, which few of us actually do when shopping for anyone other than ourselves. So, you look past MW, and wonder what else is out there.

And then it occurs to you: food. What about a nice juicy burger from Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB)? Now that's more like it. Today, the shares are 0.4% lower at $87.28, cutting their 2015 lead to 13.4%. However, the stock is now riding nicely atop its rising 10-day moving average. If put players change their behavior, RRGB could see additional gains. The security's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.24 is an annual high, meaning short-term option traders are more put-skewed now than at any other point in the past year. 

That should do it. Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW), Home Depot Inc (NYSE:HD), and Men's Wearhouse Inc (NYSE:MW) were all fine options. But your dad is going to love chowing down on that burger from Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ:RRGB). Although, I'm sure he'd be happy with whatever you got him, as long as you let him nap in peace.

Happy Father's Day!

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