Can Facebook Inc (FB) Regain Its Technical Glory?

If past is prologue, Facebook Inc (FB) could continue to rally off its 200-day moving average

Jan 21, 2016 at 12:23 PM
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Just in time for this weekend's NFL conference championship games, Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) is kicking off a new feature called "The Facebook Sports Stadium." The hub will allow fans to follow the latest reactions to, and post their own thoughts on, live sporting events.

Meanwhile, FB is having a solid day on the charts, up 1.6% at $95.86, helped by a bounce off its 200-day moving average -- not unlike this sporty blue chip. Looking back three years, similar signals have yielded impressive returns. Specifically, after four of the last five times FB has tested this trendline, it's gone on to positive returns in the ensuing 21 sessions -- with a typical gain of 8.2%.

This would be a welcome development for the shares, which have struggled (along with the broader market) since early November. Once trading as high as $110.65, FB has tumbled 13%. Year-over-year, however, the stock has still advanced an impressive 23%.

The recent losses have apparently weighed heavily on option traders, who have grown increasingly bearish. The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 0.57 across the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) sits just 10 percentage points shy of an annual peak. In other words, ahead of FB's earnings report next Wednesday evening, speculators have been placing bearish bets over bullish at a faster-than-usual clip.

If Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) tops expectations, a capitulation among these skeptics could help the shares resume their quest for technical glory. By contrast, the social media company's embattled rival threatens to run even lower, should its bullish holdouts finally throw in the towel.

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