Progress Report: How Our Top Stock Picks of 2026 Are Faring

Subscribers to our Substack, The Contrarian Edge, received this commentary on Sunday, July 5 .

Yesterday, nervous ahead of the U.S.-Bosnia Round of 32 game, I passed the time by performing by auditing the last quarter and checking my 2026 goals. What initially felt like an insurmountable task turned into a 20-minute exercise that provided clarity on the months ahead.

What’s the point of goals and resolutions if you don’t check up on them? Now past the halfway point of the year, its time for our Top Stock 2026 progress report. Quarterly gains for the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were reflected by four picks pivoting from the red in Q1 to the green in Q2. Only two names went the other direction, while 11 names overall gained ground from Q1 to Q2.

The report has a history of timing some trends that ultimately define the broad market risk appetite. Betting on 3D printing and AI infrastructure as winners in 2026 has been astute, so far. The space boom with Rocket Lab (RKLB) last year emblemized the growth stock revival of 2025. In recent years, Semiconductor and software names like Taiwan Semiconductor and MongoDB (MDB) have burst onto the scene, shaking up market breadth.

But they’re not all crystal ball, shot-calling dart throws; stabler names like CF Industries (CF), Cintas (CTAS), or Waste Management (WM), to name a few, exemplify the importance of hedges against growth plays.

This simple report offers a snapshot of how to navigate the ins and outs of the stock market. Quarterly check-ins help take the temperature of risk within actionable timeframes.

Overall, halfway through the year, nine of the 15 stocks are in the black, and the equal-weighted return of the entire report sits at 21%. In Q1, it was -0.2%.

One of my favorite banter rebuttals is ‘I’m never wrong, just early.’ VELO is the poster child for that. My exact words, back on April 2, were ‘watch this space for a melt-up.’ The 3D-printing stock bounced off a stable floor at $10, an area – we called as a floor -- that roughly coincides with its 100-day moving average. Then, a 49.4% post-earnings explosion from May 13 reset expectations, with the Velo trading as high as $31.75 on June 11.

The shares have since come back down to earth from there, finishing June with a 27% drawdown. So far though, the 80-day trendline is stepping up, an ‘overbought’ condition is getting worked off, and 25% of the stock’s total available float is sold short. Time to double down and call that VELO is coiling up for its next unwind higher.

The gene-editing staple has added 7% in the first two days of July and is currently trading at its highest level since March 4. Keep an eye on the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) creeping up to 75, but with nearly 30% of its total available float sold short, CRSP is one post-earnings pop away from entering another stratosphere.

IonQ made up for lost time, adding over 113% in April and May, thanks in large part to the Trump administration backing quantum computing. What’s crazy about that two-month run is sandwiched between it is a 9.3% post-earnings selloff on May 7. Watch for round-number $50 during this inevitable rotation.

DigitalOcean (DOCN) and Nebius Group NV (NBIS) are doing most if not all of the heavy lifting. Both stocks are off their June peaks, testing key support, and are heavily shorted.

QuantumScape Corp (NASDAQ:QS) has never really gotten off the bus this year. Seven-straight weekly wins from April through May was then followed by a 15.8% loss in June. A top-line beat from the lithium battery producer only resulted in a muted 1.2% post-earnings move, and the trendline from November highs to the 2026 peak in June is firmly intact. Per the chart below, maybe a floor at $7 steps up, and there’s still massive short squeeze potential.

 

Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) is what happens when you tie yourself to a commodity. Gold was the darling of Q1 but has completely shut down since, and stocks like AEM paid the price.

Cue the Bon Jovi. We’re halfway there, and there’s only one question to ask: do you believe this is a top, or not? If you do, then the AI trade has had its 15 minutes of fame, and all of these high-beta growth names are going to come crashing down. If that’s the case, the likes of AEM, consumer cyclical Colgate-Palmolive (CL), and Dollar Tree (DLTR) will be there to pick up the slack.

But if you view the recent volatility as a natural shaking out of weaker hands and profit taking, then there are plenty of contrarian plays with potential still to unwind.

What’s Next For These Picks?

Fuck Elon Musk.

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