ENPH has a rather lackluster post-earnings history, but desperately needs a pop
Shares of Enphase Energy Inc (NASDAQ:ENPH) are down 3.1% to trade at $38.34, earlier hitting their lowest level since mid-May and now off by 21% for the quarter, despite a price-target hike out of Citigroup to $43. This bull note comes just ahead of the renewable energy name's second-quarter earnings, due out after the close on Thursday, July 28.
Zacks research is anticipating a quarterly earnings per share of 46 cents, representing a 33.3% year-over-year increase, on revenue of $290.91 million. ENPH has finished six of its last eight post-earnings sessions lower, but did manage to pop 38.6% after February's report. Analysts estimate a 15.9% swing this time around, regardless of direction, similar to the average two-year post-earnings shift of 15.2%.
Short sellers have been retreating, down 12% during the past two reporting periods. This accounts for 18.4% of the stock's available float, or nearly three days' worth of pent-up buying power.
In the short term, options traders have been never been more bearish over the last 12 months. This is per ENPH's Shaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.10, which sits in the 100th percentile of its annual range.
Regardless, the equity sports an Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecards (SVS) reading of 85 out of 100, suggesting Enphase Energy stock has realized higher volatility than its options have priced in over the past 12 months.