The 260-day moving average could catapult BABA higher
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd - ADR (NYSE:BABA) stock is down 0.8% to trade at $142.97 at last glance, eyeing its fourth-straight loss after earlier hitting its lowest level since September, though it still sports a 24% nine-month lead. While there is no catalyst for this negative price action, recent tech sector weakness and the U.S.-Iran conflict are likely weighing on shares. The silver lining is that this pullback has placed BABA close to a trendline with historically bullish implications.
Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, Alibaba stock is now within 0.75 of the 260-day moving average's 20-day average true range (ATR), after remaining above it 80% of the time in the last two weeks and in 80% of the last 42 trading sessions.
This signal has occurred six other times over the past 10 years, after which the security was higher one month later 67% time, with an average 6% gain. From its current perch, a move of similar magnitude would place the equity back above $151.
Options look affordably priced. This is per the security's Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) 46% that sits in the low 22nd percentile of annual readings, indicating traders are pricing in low volatility expectations.