FDX's December weakness is the byproduct of some rough post-earnings reactions
FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX) is always in focus around the holidays. Despite upbeat Cyber Monday sales numbers this year, the logistics stock may stumble into 2026, after landing on a bearish seasonal table.
Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White compiled a list of the 25 best and worst stocks on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in December, going back 10 years. FDX is the third worst performer on the list, averaging a 4.8% loss over the last decade, with only a 20% monthly win rate. Sector peer United Parcel Service (UPS) also landed on the list.
FedEx stock is up nearly 15% this quarter after encountering a familiar floor around $220 earlier in the fall. The shares were turned away last week at their year-to-date breakeven level, though, an area that could prove troublesome in the next three weeks.
FedEx's third-quarter report is also due out after the close on Dec. 18. The main explainer for the December underperformance is likely its post-earnings history. FedEx typically reports earnings late in the season, and has finished the next-day session lower in five of the last eight reports, including a 12.1% post-earnings drawdown in December 2023.
Another post-earnings tumble could prompt a shift in analyst sentiment. Despite the underperformance, 18 of the 30 brokerages rate FDX a "buy" or better, with only two "strong sells" on the books.
Premium is expensive with earnings looming, so a could be the move going forward. FedEx stocks's checks in at 15 out of 100. This means the security has consistently realized lower volatility than its options have priced in.