Unwinding Optimism Could Send Steel Stock Even Lower

Shares of TX are down over 30% from their peak

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Ternium S.A. (NYSE:TX) is a manufacturer of flat and long steel products with operating facilities in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, the southern United States, and Central America. TX is also the leading steel company in Latin America with highly integrated processes to manufacture steel and value-added products. At last glance, TX is trading flat at $38.02.

Ternium stock has increased about 5% year-over-year and TX is currently up 9% since its June 2021 bottom of $34.96. However, shares of TX have dropped 15% year-to-date and are down 10% over the past month. The share are also seeing new overhead pressure just above the $38 level.

TX is expected to see significant declines in sales and earnings over the coming years, which has led Ternium stock to trade at very low valuation metrics. Ternium stock provides a forward price-earnings ratio of 3.02 and a price-sales ratio of 0.44, with estimates suggesting the steel name will end fiscal 2022 with a 38.2% decrease in earnings and a 1.8% increase in revenues. TX is also expected to report an additional 37.9% decrease in earnings, as well as an 11% drop in revenues for fiscal 2023.

The steel company now offers a very attractive dividend yield of 6.84% with a forward dividend of $2.60. Ternium also maintains a solid balance sheet with $2.92 billion in cash and $1.62 billion in total debt, providing a decent amount of safety for the business’ longevity.

Furthermore, even at TX's estimated 2023 EPS (earnings per share) of 7.48, Ternium stock would provide a great forward price-earnings ratio of 5.08, meaning the steel business would have to see considerably larger declines before valuation becomes an issue. Overall, with TX’s negative estimates for the coming years and Ternium stock’s continued bearish form, Ternium stock could prove to be a great buying opportunity for dividend investors.

Its also worth noting that here remains plenty of room for downgrades, should the optimism surrounding TX unwind. Heading into today's trading, three out of the four covering brokerages sport a "strong buy" recommendation.

Lastly, What's more, Ternium stock has a knack for outperforming options traders' volatility expectations, according to its Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 (out of 100).


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