Struggling AMC Stock Could Suffer Even More Downside

AMC stepped into the earnings confessional late last week

Deputy Editor
Nov 11, 2019 at 11:32 AM
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Since posting a third-quarter report that missed analysts' estimates last week, resulting in a three-week low of $9.12, the shares of AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE:AMC) have been struggling on the charts. While the stock briefly popped north of its 30-day moving average, the trendline has served as stiff resistance on the charts. The 30-day isn't the only technical signal creating pressure on the charts. Last week, the equity ran right into the historically bearish 120-day moving average, which has meant even more downside for AMC is the past. 

AMC Nov 11

In a study conducted by Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, this signal has flashed four other times during the past four years. One month later, the stock was always lower, averaging an 8.84% drop. From its current perch at $9.50, similar move would put AMC below the $9 level -- home to its mid-October three-month lows. 

Analysts have been surprisingly quiet since last week's report, but judging from its 22.6% year-to-date deficit, a round of bear notes could be on their way. Right now, six of the nine in coverage call AMC a "strong buy," and the consensus 12-month price target of $14.83 is a 55.9% premium to current levels. 

This bullish behavior can be see in the options pits, too, where in the last 10 weeks, 4.69 calls have been bought for every put at the the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX). This ratio sits higher than 86% of all other readings from the past year, too, suggesting a healthier-than-usual preference for calls of late. 

On the other hand, short interest has shot up 11.7% in the last two reporting periods to 19.15 million shares sold short. These bears have a solid 37.8% grip on the stock's available float, too, which makes up over eight days of trading at AMC's average pace. 

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