Technical Signal Suggests Traders Buy Fossil, MGM Resorts Shares

Fossil Group Inc (FOSL) and MGM Resorts International (MGM) got killed after earnings this week, but the stocks could be set for a recovery

Feb 17, 2017 at 11:04 AM
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Fossil Group Inc (NASDAQ:FOSL) and MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) both suffered staggering losses in the wake of their recent earnings reports. Specifically, FOSL plunged almost 15% on Wednesday -- and hit a multi-year low -- while MGM shares shed over 9% yesterday, attracting options traders in the process. That said, if past is precedent, both stocks may have also flashed a buy signal.

Starting with FOSL, the watch stock breached its lower Bollinger Band after its post-earnings sell-off, putting it in oversold territory. This has been a bullish signal for stocks over the last 12 months. In fact, Fossil shares breached this level in early November, which was immediately followed by a sharp rally, per the chart below:

fossil stock chart with bollinger bands

At last check, FOSL stock is up 2.4% at $20.72, muscling back above the lower Bollinger Band. Potentially also contributing to today's rebound, the stock settled yesterday with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 29, echoing its oversold status -- and suggesting even more near-term gains could be in the cards.

As the chart above makes clear, FOSL still has a long way to go to reach technical respectability. However, if the stock reasserts itself, it could benefit from short-covering activity and/or analyst upgrades. With over one-fifth of FOSL's float sold short, it would take eight sessions for short sellers to cover their positions, at typical trading levels. Moreover, 12 of 13 analysts maintain a "hold" or worse rating on the stock.

MGM is in a similar spot, technically speaking, having breached its lower Bollinger Band after a dismal earnings report yesterday. The stock continues to descend, down 1.8% today at $26.39. However, the shares could be gearing up for a mean reversal, given the Bollinger Band signal -- which last flashed in late August, preceding a sharp, months-long rally -- and the fact that the equity's 14-day RSI is below 32, approaching oversold territory.

mgm resorts stock chart with bollinger bands

However, from a contrarian perspective, MGM Resorts International doesn't have as good a setup as Fossil Group Inc, given the former's higher levels of optimism. For instance, just 3.5% of MGM's float is sold short, suggesting there's limited potential for a short squeeze. Not to mention, all 14 analysts tracking the stock rate it a "buy" or better, leaving next to no room for upgrades.

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