18 Stocks That Could Swing On a Patriots Super Bowl Loss

KR shares historically outperform when the Patriots lose Super Bowls, where NKE shares underperform

Alex Eppstein
Feb 3, 2017 at 2:37 PM
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If you're like most football fans outside of New England, you're rooting for a Patriots loss this Sunday. But one thing to keep in mind as you root against Tom Brady and Co. is what a Super Bowl loss could do to your stock portfolio. Below are two lists with the best and worst stocks to own following a Patriots Super Bowl loss, based on rest-of-year returns. Data is courtesy of Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White. Based on the charts, you'd want to own Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) shares, and avoid Nike Inc (NYSE:NKE) shares.

best and worst stocks after patriots lose super bowls

New England has lost four Super Bowls over the last 50 years. Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE:WMT) has done the best in the aftermath of those instances, but KR isn't far behind. The grocery stock has averaged a rest-of-year return of 24%, with all four occurrences leading to a positive performance.

KR shares have been rising since bottoming at $28.71 in late October, last seen trading at $34.13. Options traders have remained bearish, though, perhaps swayed by the stock's deep year-over-year deficit of 12.4%. The equity's 10-day put/call volume ratio at the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX) is a top-heavy 2.49. This ratio ranks in the pessimistically skewed 97th annual percentile.

Not to mention, Kroger Co's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) of 1.50 registers only 11 percentage points from a 52-week peak. Of course, it's possible some put purchases came at the hands of shareholders seeking a downside hedge. Nonetheless, KR shareholders should root for the Atlanta Falcons.

Conversely, NKE shareholders should hope the Pats can avoid a loss. After New England's last four Super Bowl failures, the Dow stock has had negative year-to-date returns 100% of the time, with an average loss of 22%. This would continue the shares' bearish long-term trend, as NKE has surrendered 12.6% year-over-year to hover at $52.60.

Understandably, sentiment has piled up on the negative side of the aisle. For one, Nike Inc's SOIR of 1.18 checks in above nine-tenths of all readings recorded in the past 12 months. For another, a majority of covering analysts consider the stock a "hold" or worse -- though 14 "strong sell" endorsements remain, suggesting there's room for downgrades, in the event of post-Super Bowl downside.

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